Analysis

SEEING FIGHTS DIFFERENTLY… ShootaFairOne.com”

 

FIGHT PREDICTIONS & STRATEGY ANALYSIS

 

Floyd Mayweather v. Shane Mosley

Al Alvir:  “I have high hopes for this one becoming a war and putting an exclamation point on Floyd’s arguably boring career north of 135, but I have a strong reservation that Mosley will reveal age and some unwillingness to take the necessary risks that an outclassed pug needs to take when he ‘can’t get off’ punches like he used to.  I am confident, however, that Shane will show in spurts how sub-brilliant Floyd may actually be and how Shane could’a done it a few years back (Zab did it and Jose Luis Castillo proved it to many of us in Floyd’s real first loss).  I’ve stated that this fight ‘can’ turn into a war, but I also know better.  Floyd will probably hold, pot shot, and occasionally throw a weighty left hook that only rocks lightweights and soft chins, not Shane.  My money will be spread long if I make a bet – that would be Shane by UD with one or two 10-8 rounds).  But my hunch is on Floyd being pretty boring and protecting his points.  Floyd by split decision.”

Jairo Espinosa:  “Floyd wins more easily than we expected.  His sharp left finds a home often.  Close UD.”

Shawn Edwards:  “I’m going to keep it simple on my prediction of the Mayweather vs Mosley fight. I’m a strong believer in ‘You’re only as good as your last fight.’ With that being said, I was not impressed with ‘Money’s’ performance in the Marquez fight to a certain extent. For one, even before the fight started, he didn’t make weight – even the catch weight – which gave him a sizeable size advantage over Marquez.  This was Marquez’s FIRST fight a 147 pounds. Second, we all know he was handpicked. Money had the size, speed and power advantage over Marquez, especially being that Marquez was an official lightwight at the time of the fight.  And Money’s plead to say that Marquez was ranked number 2 on the pound for pound list is a joke.  Doesn’t Money get it? POUND FOR POUND?  That’s like B-HOP fighting Manny Pac and justifying it by saying, “Well, he was ranked number one on the Pound for Pound list.” Switching to the fight itself, Money could be Money. He could pop shot, shoot the quick left hook- and move out of the way from the slower and smaller Marquez’s punches. His work output in the entire fight was 300 and something punches over 12 rounds – (EVEN THOUGH THOSE NUMBERS ARE BS.  SEE AL ALVIR’S MOTION STATISTICS SYSTEM.)  Still, it shows me he’s safety first, even against a guy who came up 2 weight classes. With that being said, Shane is a far way busier fighter than Mayweather, and Shane has the experience. I was impressed with Shane’s last fight.  He worked behind a jab and set Margarito up with those hard quick left hooks. He also knocked a guy out who was considered to have had the best chin in boxing at the time. His new trainer, Brother Naz, I think plays a major role in Shane’s road to victory, as far as strategy and motivation for Shane.  One thing we do know is that Shane has a proven chin and Mayweather’s…that’s something we don’t know.  I think once it’s tested, and it will be, I think that the dynamics of the fight changes for Money; His way of thinking of safety first will only be enhanced, and he will not engage while Shane will win the rounds on points due to Money’s inactivity. Money will not risk getting knocked out, and he’ll do it by all means necessary. His ego and pride could not take a ko going out on his shield, and if that does happen, he’ll be another Roy Jones Jr. as far as how his career went after being knocked out.  I just don’t see the greatness in Money yet. Think about this: Has he ever dominated a fighter of significance in his own weight class since Diego Corrales? Oscar laid the blueprint to beat him. People tend to forget about that fight due to Money’s mouth. He won on split decision and only won by 2 points. I just think Mosley’s activity, power, speed and experience will be too much for Mayweather if the right Shane shows up, which I think will. I think the fight will go like this: Early rounds, you have two experienced fighters, so there will be a feeling out process. Shane’s trying to figure out the defense of Floyd while Floyd’s doing what he does best – running and pop shotting and holding. Shane will not really chase Floyd but try to bait Floyd into fighting by using a fickering jab – not a damaging one, and with the help of the crowd possibly booing, Floyd may try to engage to a certain extent. Shane takes adnvantage of that and I think Shane wins the early rounds. Middle to late rounds, Mayweather gets more active because he has to if he wants the win. He wins a few rounds here and there until he gets rocked with a shot, because at that point he will have became more active or possibly knocked out. My initial prediction. I think Shane wins on a close decision because of the rounds he hurt Mayweather in which would probably be scored 10-8. But I definitely wouldn’t rule out a stoppage by Shane.*Note…It’s Las Vegas and anything can happen in Vegas; Floyd may win on the score cards but Shane may have  really won the fight and we can have controversy which the sport of boxing is no stranger to. A ROBBERY MIGHT BE IN THE MAKING.  I just don’t think Floyd wins fair and square.”

Greg Chavez:  “Split Decision.  Mayweather will win, but I/we won’t agree with the judges. Don’t be surprised if it’s boring.”

Bernard Hopkins v. Roy Jones Jr.

Jairo Espinosa:  “I think this will be a close fight between two not-as-over-the-hill-as-expected guys.  Bernard will resort to some of his dirty, boring holding, and Roy will play the ropes like he normally has done in his advanced career.  I see it going the distance and Hopkins taking a UD over a decent Roy who still, and will forever, maintain that he would have won the first fight under any conditions.”

A. O’Toole: “Who cares?! Put a dollar on me on the old man.”

Manny Pacquiao v. Joshua Clottey

Al Alvir:  “I can’t go against Pac for a final prognosis. People have been called ‘bigger and stronger’ for his last 5 fights and it turned out to be a non-issue to the point of seeming untrue.  I’m picking Pacman by unanimous decision and am guessing that Clottey escapes a near stoppage. I think Clottey is big, really good, but his style is tailor-made for Pac. Clottey’s hooks, the punch that I think Pacman is susceptible to, are not top-grade and his strength is not translated into the power one would expect. Clottey is tall, long and resilient, but Pacman should out abuse him. Against Cotto, Clottey showed chinks in his armor – complaining about low blows and not pouring it on late. I saw a hint of a lack of hunger in that fight. I see Clottey looking like many of Pacman’s other opponents: strong, big, and unbelievably gun-shy. I’m not saying Clottey won’t be active, but I am saying that I think he won’t be as active as ‘people who have never been in the ring think he should be because they think it’s so easy to do.’  Once again, speed overcomes.”

Jairo Espinosa:  “Pacman is ready for the taking. It’s a let-down to be fighting for less money, a smaller name than Mayweather, and a guy in Clottey people don’t know. Clottey is underrated throughout boxing, and it might not translate from Freddie Roach to pupil. Pacquiao has to be beat sooner or later.  Now is later.”

 

 

  

Curtis Stevens v. Jesse Brinkley

Jairo Espinosa:  “Stevens is stepping up.  Brinkley is going to be good, but I’m giving it to Brooklyn on this one.  The fight is in Stevens’ hands.  Stevens is going to press and impress, while Brinkley tries to box.  I pick Stevens showing that he has the experience and the seasoned determination to make it through tough spots and to take a close unanimous decision.  Stevens rocks Brinkley twice, one knock-down mid-rounds.  Brinkley manages to make it to the last bell, however.  Still, Brooklyn stand up.”

Post Fight Comments

Garrett Morris:  “I haven’t seen Stevens in his previous 4 fights, so I couldn’t make a call.  Stevens looks like he needs to make a turn in his career.  He has a good shell defense in spots, like Winky Wright, but he takes a long time to come out of the shell after he loses his speed from the first couple of rounds.  He takes longer and longer to throw the hook off the block.  When he gets defensive, he tends to square-up and overload on left hooks, kind of telegraphing each one.  He doesn’t appear to have grown much since he had 16 fights.  I wanted to see head movement and a few really good moves other than turning away from right hands and leaning to his left when he is about to throw a big left hook.  Where were the combinations and body work?  Everyone thinks that a short, Tyson-like fighter can’t get cute with the skills, but that’s baloney.  His little toe-tap is cute though.  When he’s right, he has speed, but the bulk seems to slow him down.  I’m a big supporter of “Showtime” but I don’t see him going anywhere past journeyman status unless he gets a new trainer.  Something isn’t clicking.  I say he cuts down on the muscle and moves to 160.  At least he’s still young.”

Mikkel Kessler v. Andre Ward

Al Alvir:  “This is a hard one to call.  I’m usually confident about my picks, but this time it’s different due to Ward being impressive but untested.  I see this one being a close, tactical fight with Ward picking spots but getting wary.  Kessler is gonna hit Ward with the more telling shots.  One knock-down, Ward late rounds.  I pick Kessler with a closer than expected unanimous decision, 7 rounds to 5, 115-112.”

Post Fight Comments

Al Alvir:  Ward fought well.  Kessler had a bad effort.  I agree that Ward’s holding was that of a coward, but his skills were the factor.  Kessler was too inactive and seemed scared to go to the body, opening up his face.  He didn’t open up more than once.  Still, Ward might be the real deal. 

 

Miguel Cotto v. Manny Pacquiao

Jairo Espinosa:  “All my chips are on brown.  Well, the Filipino sort.  Pacquiao is going to dominate in this exciting one.  Cotto is strong but overrated among the pound-for-pound greats.  He’ll be too slow and won’t find Pacman.  Middle rounds TKO.  Round 6 if I have to pick, all Pacquiao.”

Al Alvir:   “I recognize that Cotto is bigger and supposedly stronger, but I wasn’t impressed with him in the Clottey debacle.  Clottey was just dumb late, and that cut wasn’t as bad as had been overcame by hundreds of other top-ranked fighters in worse wars.  I think Manny has improved too much and Cotto is no better than Morales, Barrera, or Marquez.  I see Cotto going for the body but getting gun-shy by the middle rounds due to Manny’s speed and surprising pop.  Cotto’s chin used to be considered glass so Manny will catch Cotto blind a few times… and “it’s the ones you don’t see…”  Even though Manny is smaller, I’m picking him via stoppage in the 10th, not sleeping, but referee mercy.  I just don’t think an aged DeLaHoya is as far from Cotto as people think.”

A. O’Toole:   “Cotto is gonna out abuse Pacman.  He’s strong and people forget he can box.  He’s gonna surprise Pacman by not coming forward as intensely as they think.  If Cotto can keep Pacman honest with some good counters and variety and some movement, Cotto squeaks victory through abusing Pacman’s body.  Miguel Cotto split decision.”

Post Fight Comments

Al Alvir:  I think Pacquiao has solidified his stance as the best P4P, but still one who makes mistakes.  Freddie Roach must know it, but he must also realize that the mistakes are too unorthodox for most fighters to take advantage of.  I don’t think Cotto is, or was, ever as good as most people thought he was.  If Zab Judah didn’t have his father, he probably would have done away with Cotto long ago.  For Pacquiao, I see Shane Mosley perhaps being a more dangerous fight than Floyd Mayweather.  Angles and a share of volume are needed to compete with Pacquiao, and Mosley might have it.  I’d still pic Pacquiao.  How, anymore, can anyone not?

Chad Dawson v. Glen Johnson

Jairo Espinosa: Chad Dawson all the way.  He’ll have an easier time.  Johnson is going to press the fight and do what he does, but it’s not going to be enough.  Chad UD.shootafairone never underestimate

Fedor Emelianenko v. Brett Rogers

A. Alvir:  Fedor might be surprised by the strength and the stand up of Rogers, but Fedor catches up on the ground.  I see Fedor winning easily via submission.

Carl Froch v. Andre Dirrell

J. Espinosa: I see Froch being surprised by Andre’s movement and I see Andre not allowing Froch to fully engage or get off shots early in the fight.  Later, Froch catches up and outclasses Andre Dirrell.  Froch by closer than expected decision.

Arthur Abraham v. Jermain Taylor

J. Espinosa: Taylor’s going to be come out fast, but not surprisingly, he’s going to run out of steam.  Abraham will press the fight as it gets into the deep rounds.  I see the fight being tough, but going the distance.  Taylor survives, but loses to an active Arthur Abraham.

A. Alvir: I think Taylor’s going to show a lot more than people expect, but I see him losing via decision after lackluster championship rounds. 

12 responses to “Analysis

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  2. Im not jumping on the Floyd Mayweather bandwagon- Im still favor Manny to win

  3. Sugar Ray Still The Best and Pac 2nd

    Really good guesses, thanks. You guys are not afraid fo giving a definite prediction.

  4. CaliforniaDream11

    Espinosa pens the odds/

  5. CaliforniaDream11

    Al, your prognosis is so on point most of the time, almost always. You should train the contenders for their championship fights. You predicted Clottey to a tee.

  6. Raumert"The Product" Hubert

    Finally a site where true boxing enthusiasts can speak openly without all the fan fair. No concern for being politically correct. The analysis on the upcoming Stevens fight is piss poor. Stevens has incredible strength and a great punch. His low center of gravity could be considered a strength against some opponents. His lack of height and reach will prove to be his undoing in this one. Stevens has yet to show and defensive prowess. In short his “chin” just might get “checked”. Brinkley will just frustrate Stevens with the jab. This fight should be a piece of cake as long as Brinkley jabs. Until Stevens shows he is sturdy defensively I am not buying in on the hype. (edited version)

  7. Raumert"The Product" Hubert

    Finally a site where true boxing enthusiasts can speak openly without all the fan fair, and concern for being p[olitically correct. The analysis on the upcoming Stevens fight is piss poor. Looking at the upcoming Stevens fight, Stevens has incredible strength and a great punch. His low center of gravity could be considered a strength against some opponents. His lack of height and reach will prove to be his undoing in this one. Stevens has yet to show and defensive prowess. In short his chin just might get checked. Brinkley will just frustrate Stevens with teh Jab. This fight is a piece of as long as Brinkley jabs. Until Stevens shows he is sturdy defensively I am not buying in on the hype.

  8. Pretty Boy will still get him. Cotto should retire now.

  9. So much for out abuse!

  10. Gotta Respect Pacman

    Al you know your boxing better than most analysts. Your predictions let me know your a true professor of boxing. I wanted Miguel but Pacman can be considered the greatest of all time. Great site.

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